India's inflation trajectory in the coming months will be influenced more by the geo-political situation due to the war in Europe and its impact on supply chains and commodity prices. However, the country is better placed than most to "weather the storm" and achieve growth of close to 8 per cent in the current fiscal year, the finance ministry said in its latest monthly economic report on Thursday. "Through the channel of imports, elevated global crude and edible oil prices now have a significant impact on India's inflation outlook. "Government measures to keep the prices of these commodities in check, along with the recent hike in policy rates by the RBI, are expected to temper inflationary pressures in the economy," the monthly economic report for April, drafted by the finance ministry's economic division, said.
'Top lines will grow, volume growth will be there, but margins might also be impacted.'
The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its latest World Economic Outlook report, has slashed its forecast for India's FY23 gross domestic product growth to 8.2 per cent from 9 per cent, saying that higher commodity prices will weigh on private consumption and investment. This was one of the steepest cuts for emerging economies compared to the IMF's January WEO forecasts. Saying that global economic prospects have worsened significantly due to commodity price volatility and disruption of supply chains caused by the war in Europe, IMF cut its global growth outlook for calendar year 2022 to 3.6 per cent from 4.4 per cent, and said both Russia and Ukraine could experience large GDP contractions.
'Large-caps are better placed to withstand the impact of higher input cost inflation, rising rates and withdrawal of excess global liquidity.'
Sebi is reportedly examining the matter internally and has reached out to the fund house on the matter.
'With the ease of access, we have seen an increased participation from tier-2, tier-3, and tier-4 cities/towns.'
Taking advantage of a Russian offer to sell its crude oil cheap and bear the cost of insurance and transportation, India may import as much as 2 million tonnes (mt), or roughly 15 million barrels of crude, from the sanctioned nation in 2022, Business Standard has learnt. This comes after reports that Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) bought 3 million barrels of Russian Urals from trader Vitol for May delivery. This will be on cost, insurance and freight (CIF) model, where the seller incurs the costs and pays the freight, including insurance charges.
The finance ministry said on Tuesday that high energy and commodity prices due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine may provide an upside risk to inflation and continued vigil is required. "Going forward, elevated energy and commodity prices may act as an upside risk to the inflation outlook in the near-medium term. "Given the inherently unsustainable nature of high prices, international commodity prices are expected to level off early with an increase in supplies outside the crisis zone," the department of economic affairs said in its latest monthly economic report for February.
'It will be a cat and mouse game between investors and the government.' 'The issue will be launched only if there is sufficient demand from investors and the government is in agreement with the bankers on the valuations.'
The Centre's ambitious Rs 6-trillion National Monetisation Pipeline (NMP) could fall short of yearly targets for the current fiscal year (FY22) and the next one as well (FY23), partly due to the long gestation period in monetising big-ticket railway infrastructure, Business Standard has learnt from sources in the finance and rail ministries. Officials say the major chunk of railway monetisation will happen from FY24 onwards because leasing some of the infrastructure, like stadiums and dedicated freight corridor, will not happen anytime soon. Rail infra is expected to be the second-biggest contributor to the NMP, with about Rs 1.52 trillion worth of assets to be monetised.
From March 3, investors in India will be able to trade in select US stocks through the NSE International Exchange (NSE IFSC), a wholly owned subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange (NSE). Investors can invest in NSE IFSC receipts on US stocks, which will be in the form of unsponsored depository receipts (DRs). For a start, this will include DRs of 50 US stocks such as Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Tesla, Microsoft, Morgan Stanley, Nike, P&G, Coca-Cola, and Exxon Mobil. Indian retail investors will be able to transact on the NSE IFSC platform under the Liberalised Remittance Scheme (LRS) limits prescribed by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which currently stand at $250,000 per year.
The National Stock Exchange (NSE) has got into firefighting mode to control the reputational damage caused by the Securities and Exchange Board of India's (Sebi's) order against its former managing director and chief executive officer Chitra Ramkrishna and others. According to sources, the exchange's management over the past one week has met several key stakeholders, including officials in the finance ministry and Sebi, major shareholders, and trading members, trying to distance itself from the controversy. The exchange plans to hold more meetings in the coming week to ensure that trading volumes and confidence in the bourse don't get impacted, they added.
Currently, trades on the Indian stock exchanges are settled within two days, just like most major markets such as Singapore, Hong Kong, Australia, Japan, and South Korea. Indian exchanges, however, will be moving to T+1 settlement from February 25 in a phased manner.
A proposal in the Union Budget 2022-23 to raise excise duty on dirtier, unblended retail petrol and diesel has met with some resistance from the petroleum ministry. However, finance ministry officials say no such communication arguing against the levy of extra duty on diesel has been received from the oil ministry. Until there are discussions between the two departments, the proposal will not be tweaked in the Finance Bill. The Rs 2 per litre additional excise duty proposed on unblended fuels in the Finance Bill will result in a uniform hike of diesel prices across the country from October 1.
'Younger investors start their journey with very little capital so they are risking less while they have a lot of time to experiment and learn early on.'
Illustration: Uttam Ghosh/Rediff.com After a brief respite at the year's start, FPIs have dumped shares worth more than $5.7 billion (Rs 42,596 crore), taking the cumulative net outflows since October to $10.5 billion (Rs 78,466 crore), and adding to the volatility on the bourses. The figure would have been a lot worse had it not been for net purchases to the tune of $5.7 billion in the primary market from October to date.
Despite the wobble in the markets over the past few weeks, Indian equities remain expensive as measured by several yardsticks. India's market capitalisation-to-GDP ratio, for instance, has touched a multi-year high. The ratio is currently at 116 per cent, based on the FY22E gross domestic product (GDP) number, above its long-term average of 79 per cent.
Retail investors have gained significant heft in the past year amid a sustained uptick in Indian equities. The share of retail investors in companies listed on the NSE reached an all-time high of 7.32 per cent in the quarter ended December 31, 2021, up from 7.13 per cent in the previous quarter and 6.9 per cent a year ago, the data from PRIME Infobase shows. This was despite the Nifty's 1.5 per cent decline during the quarter.
The proposal in the Finance Bill to amend provisions of Section 179 of the Income Tax (I-T) Act relating to tax liability of directors of private limited companies from April 1, 2022, could increase risks for directors of medium and small-sized firms in case of non-payment, said experts. While the language of the provision is quite broad, the title of the section limits itself to 'liability of directors of private companies in liquidation'. The Bill proposes to align the title with the scope of the provision, thereby ensuring that orders under this section can be issued even if the relevant company is not under liquidation.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) who invest from Mauritius into Indian companies that dole out bonus debentures will get impacted by the tax avoidance provisions on bonus stripping. The FY23 Budget has extended these provisions - applicable only to MFs, so far - to shares and units of REITs, InvITs and AIFs. The move will especially affect large institutional investors who sell original units within nine months after the record date because the loss arising from sale of original units would have to be ignored for the purposes of computing taxable income and cannot be set off against any other capital gain.
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